The Arab world cannot modernize by following the West. Instruction from outsiders is humiliating. Any one of Pryce-Jones's examples gives the picture. A European doctor in an Algerian hospital complained to the supervisor about the filthy conditions. The supervisor was shamed; he exploded in fury and ordered the doctor out of the hospital. The filth was not cleaned up.

Arab governments change through coups and murders. The United Arab Emirates, a federation formed in 1968, is typical. Five of the seven emirs got their positions by seizing power. One overthrew his brother. Another deposed his uncles. A third shot his uncle, who had just murdered his father. A fourth expelled his uncle. A fifth grabbed power when the ruler, his brother, was shot by his cousin.

Saddam Hussein began his career in Iraq as a member of a team assigned to kill the ruler, Quassem, who had overthrown the monarchy and murdered the king and members of his family. Quassem was shot by another challenger who was ousted by Ahmad Hassan al-Bakr, to whom Saddam Hussein attached himself.

Hussein a few years later grabbed power by throwing out al-Bakr and executing a large number of his supporters. Saddam Hussein differs from the usual Arab power-holder only in that he is more blood-thirsty, ruthless, and willing to use weapons like poison gas.

No glimmer of democracy appears in the future of the Arab world. Countries governed on the principle of power-seizure achieved by murders and maintained by executions cannot sustain democracy. A democratic venture would disappear in a flash. The regime-change in Iraq, which we now anticipate, does not mean a different form of government. It means only the hope that a new dictator will be less murderous and less pathologically reckless than Saddam.

The Arab countries are caught in a trap. They feel shamed by their backwardness compared to the West. On the other hand, they cannot advance and modernize without learning from and imitating the West, which is also shaming. If the trap prevents them from rising, their escape is to bring the West down, hence their terrorist campaign made possible by their oil-wealth and modern weapons. And if terrorism cannot bring down the West, it can at least express Arab frustration and, they think, bring them honor.

Gerald and Natalie Sirkin are economists. This article appeared in the Sherman Citizen-News, for which they have written a biweekly column for many years.

From the Editor

Must-See Films

Every reader of Outpost should see three videos available at modest cost through worldnetdaily.com, website of the splendid Joseph Farah. They are The Trojan Horse, Israel and the War of Images, and Holy Land: Christians in Peril. If you can only get one, get the first. There is no more convincing summation of the goals of Arafat and the Palestinian Authority -- from the leaders themselves.

Iran and Turkey

As the outlook becomes brighter for Iran to throw off the fundamentalist Islamic yoke, fears grow that Turkey may assume it. Expert on Iran Michael Ledeen has for some time been a voice in the wilderness insisting that Iranians are perhaps the most pro-American people in the world and ripe for throwing out the ayatollahs. Ledeen points out that the majority of Iranians are now under 25 and have never known life under the Shah, but have only experienced the repressive rule of the religious hierarchy. They are in love with the idea of the West, above all the United States. There have been constant anti-government demonstrations by young people, says Ledeen, that have gone unreported in the West. Recently, the unhappiness with the regime has finally obtained broader notice as a result of the demonstrations on campuses throughout Iran on behalf of Hashem Aghajari, a professor sentenced to death for questioning the ruling clergy's interpretation of Islam.

In Ledeen's view, what is most significant is that the theocrats have backed down, promising the execution would not be carried out. The real pre-revolutionary situation in such a regime comes when those at the helm lose their nerve, and are no longer ready to act ruthlessly against anyone who challenges their authority.

Turkey looks as worrying as Iran looks promising. Turkey became the only democratic Muslim country thanks to the formidable father of modern Turkey, Kemal Ataturk. Ataturk was determined to emulate the West's institutions and used a heavy hand to separate mosque and state, making Turkey a secular state despite its overwhelmingly Moslem population. When Islamic backsliding threatened in the past, the Turkish army has stepped in. But now the Islamist Justice and Development Party has not only won the elections but has obtained a clear parliamentary majority, a rare outcome in a country usually dependent on coalitions of parties to govern. The party's youthful leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, former

December 2002               - 11 -               Outpost