[(Continued from p.5)]
over, as a result of the retreat from the Golan and Lebanon, the northern part of Israel, from Rosh Hanikra to the Kinneret, will be surrounded. It is no secret that the IDF is not capable of spreading its small regular force along the state's borders, as will be required according to this scenario.In a schematic consideration of soldier against soldier, the balance of forces between regular forces that are spread across the inner circumference (Syria, Egypt and the Palestinian state) will be one to five in favor of the Arabs. There is no doubt that Jordan, the moment it sniffs Israeli weakness, will join this threat. The same will be true of the states of the outer periphery, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Libya and Iran. In this situation, even without firing one shot, there will be a major deterioration of Israel's strategic situation, leading to ultimatums, such as abandonment of its nuclear potential, autonomy for the Arabs of the Galilee, evacuation of parts of the Negev etc. Israel's capitulation to such demands is certain, since after all, the alternative will be threat of a comprehensive war.
3. With the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian authority with a geographic definition, Israel will
The Israeli Arab Knesset Members aim to eliminate the state of the Jews by eradicating its Jewish identity and Zionism.
But while it is possible to break up a military camp and transfer it within a few days, moving a population of 200,000 spread in 150 settlements is vastly more complicated. The unequivocal demand of the Palestinian state for removal of these settlements will have full international support. The international community relies on UN resolutions in this matter and views these settlements as illegal and a breach of the Geneva Convention. And, of course, there will be universal Arab support for the demand, backed by the threat of comprehensive war. This situation will prevent Israel from intervening in favor of its citizenry captive in the Palestinian state. After all, any military action by Israel will be interpreted, and rightly so, as a causus belli.
The evacuation of 200,000 people (50,000 families) is an economic blow Israeli society is not prepared for. Monetary compensation of the population of Judea, Samaria and Gaza on the basis of the Sinai precedent will cost $150 billion, or 150% of Israel's GNP for 1999. Needless to say such a fantastic sum would lead to the breakdown of the Israeli economy. The other alternative is abandoning the Jewish settlements to Arafat's charity in the famous formula the Israeli left has proposed: "Rather than extract the fish from the aquarium, it is better to remove the water from the aquarium." In the panic which will be created in the settlements, any sum offered will be preferable to what can be expected from living in a state run by Arafat. But this kind of savings, which will impoverish the Jewish population of the settlements, will be an unbearable moral burden.
The establishment of a Palestinian state will sanction the transformation of the Arabs of Israel into an active irredentist force on the pattern of the Sudeten Germans under Nazi guidance in the 1930s. They will become a tool to destroy the state from within. Arafat guides the institutions of Israeli Arabs. His adviser for this purpose is an Arab Israeli citizen who has now been elected to the Knesset. (It must be noted that the Czechs never reached such a travesty of democracy.) The Arab fifth column within Israel expresses itself in a number of activities, the principle ones being the creation of a number of illegal institutions implementing administrative autonomy, extensive seizure of state land, illegal building of dozens of villages and unrestrained anti-Semitic incitement and sabotage, including logistic assistance to the terror of the Fatah and Islamic Jihad.
On the Parliamentary level the central agenda is elimination of the state of the Jews by eradicating its Jewish identity and Zionism. That is done under the slogan of "a state for its citizens." Here again it is a copy of the Sudeten demand for the eradication of the Slavic identity of Czechoslovakia in the guise of equal rights. There is one difference. When Konrad Henlein, the leader of the Sudeten Germans, raised this demand in the summer of 1938 he was arrested on the spot, his citizenship withdrawn and an order for his expulsion was issued. On the other hand, Member of Knesset Azmi Bishara, who made the demand that Israel become "a state for its citizens" an election slogan for his party in 1999, was able to present his candidacy for the Prime Ministership.
The establishment of a Palestinian state will give the Arabs of Israel what they lack at the moment: political backing for their demands, which will be converted in this manner from subversive undermining to ultimatums: territorial autonomy for the Arabs of Galilee, cancelling the "right of return" and the other Zionist identifying characteristics of Israel. The Arabs will also demand affirmative action to bring more of them into the governing institutions of the state and a radical reduction of military expenditures, i.e. a deadly blow against the Israel Defense Forces. These are demands which are already raised today. The deep affinity between the Arab fifth column and the Jewish left will deepen even further the process of demoralization within the Jewish public.
Outpost - 6 - January 2000