The open breach of signed agreements on the eve of the Six Day War and reconciliation with the forseeable destruction of Israel at that time is a reminder to those who refuse to learn the lessons of history. While Israel has lost its status as a strategic asset, it still possesses a valuable property in the eyes of the White House and State Department and that is Israel itself. Washington expects to earn the good will of the Arabs by its future division.

Needless to say, the pressure Israel experiences at this stage is nothing compared to what it can expect when it loses the few power multipliers that still remain to it. It is true, as William Safire remarked in his column in the New York Times: the U.S. has no interest in a partial state, without oil or security space, and which acts irresponsibly by endangering the life of its inhabitants in the face of those who want to destroy it.

The loss of water

The water potential of Western Eretz Yisrael is 1.8 billion cubic meters distributed among a population of 8 million. This means on average 225 cubic meters per person as compared to 1,200 in Egypt and 2,000 in Syria. The chief sources of Israel's water, now being exploited even beyond its capacity, are three: the drainage basis of the Kinneret, the aquifers of the mountain stretch and the aquifers of the coastal plain. Transferring the Golan to Syria means loss of control of 70% of the drainage basis of the Kinneret in other words, a most serious strike against the national water carrier. The mountain reserves, which supply almost 600 million cubic meters, particularly to the coastal plain of the Dan district, including the main urban areas of Israel, will be for the most part under the control of the Palestinian state which has no other water sources. Since the Palestinians plan to settle the displaced people of 1967 and part of the refugees of 1948 in Judea, Samaria and Gaza, and thus to achieve a population of four million, this population will require every drop of water from their reserves.

The coastal aquifers, mostly in the area of the old Green Line, supplies approximately 400 million cubic meters a year. But the majority of this water has been polluted by industrial waste and by salinization and therefore is not suitable for drinking water; it is mainly utilized by industry and agriculture. So we see that Israel in the borders of 1949 will give up most of its water and retain a sewage channel.

The Palestinian state

In Oslo, the state of Israel signed an agreement with an organization which was at the time of signature and is to this day committed to the destruction of the State of Israel. It is committed to Israel's destruction byits very name, the Organization for the Liberation of Palestine, by its covenant, by its political program (the doctrine of "stages" which presents the state as the jumping board for the destruction of Israel by the Arab states), its constitution (the PLO constitution which is that of the dominant body in the emerging Palestinian state), by its emblem (a map of Eretz Israel without Israel). Based on all of the above, the Palestinian state can be expected to take the following four steps:

l. It will claim all the territory of Judea, Samaria and Gaza with Jerusalem as the capital. Israel will have no choice but to accept this since the entire world, led by the United States, will welcome the declaration.

2. It will sign treaties of military cooperation with the Arab states, first and foremost with Egypt. This will be necessary in order for the Palestinian state to neutralize decisive Israeli military superiority. Israel will not be able to do a thing. Under international law a sovereign state may sign treaties of military cooperation with whomever it finds desirable. Further, immediately upon establ-

The Palestinian state will have 160,000 or so men in uniform, which in a very few years will equal the regular Israel Defense Army forces of 180,000.

Thus the Palestinian state will have 160,000 or so in uniform, which in a very few years will equal the regular Israel Defense Army forces of 180,000. This is a meaningful force encamped on the borders of Israel's most populous area. It will not require the most sophisticated battle tanks or F-15s to become a most serious threat to the soft underbelly of the Jewish state. Even without the Palestinian army firing one shot, the Israel Defense Forces will be obliged to spread out large forces to neutralize the threat.

Next in this stage, Egypt will again demand the withdrawal of foreign troops from Sinai. International law obliges the removal of UN forces from the territory of a sovereign state, if that state demands it. It was on the basis of this legal principle that the former UN Secretary General U Thant withdrew international forces on the eve of the Six Day War. Even without the infusion of meaningful Egyptian forces into Sinai, the IDF will be compelled to put heavy forces on the southern border. More-

[(Continued on p.6)]

January 2000               - 5 -               Outpost