2. Three squadrons of the latest F-22 fighter aircraft or 75 planes at an estimated cost of two hun-dred million dollars each or fifteen billion dollars.

3. 150 helicopters that should include gunships for anti-tank defense, assault, and transport at an estimated cost of five billion dollars.

4. A fleet of AWACS aircraft together with the required ground installations to provide Israel with 24 hour a day year round airborne command/control/ communications and intelligence capability at an estimated cost including backup and electronic warfare facilities, of five billion dollars.

5. Substantial naval augmentation, including three Tomahawk missile firing submarines and other military enhancements to improve Israel's deterrent and defense capabilities. The cost of these additional weapon systems and facilities could add another 10 billion dollars to the total military package,

It must be emphasized that the above enhancements to Israel's military capabilities represent at best a very modest compensation, in combat power, for the Golan Heights which is an indispensable asset for Israel in case of war as well as a vital deterrent to avoid war.

Just to field this equipment and the required additional military personnel would probably cost Israel at least five billion dollars per year over and above her current defense budget. Israel's standing army, air and naval forces would need to be expanded by more than a third.

Moreover, the useful life-span of all military equipment is limited. Provisions must therefore be included for timely upgrading and replacement. Consideration must also be given to the time framework for acquiring, developing the necessary infrastructure, and training of personnel before all that equipment can be deployed and combat ready. I believe it would require no less than five years from the time such an agreement with Syria was signed.

If Israel wishes to completely lose the support of the U.S. people and Congress as well as any remaining semblance of independence, all that she needs to do is to agree to U.S. troops manning the ramparts of the Golan Heights. In forfeiting the Golan Heights, Israel becomes a prohibitively expensive economic, military and political liability.

By the same token, no course of action that Israel could agree to would result in greater peril to her survival than to accept such convoluted concepts as the demilitarization of the Golan Heights under Syrian control, limited force zones, an international peacekeeping force, satellite monitoring of troop movements, etc. These have never worked and they will certainly not work with a rogue regime such as Syria.

Consider the Camp David Accords with Egypt. The latter has violated almost every significant clause in that agreement including that relating to Egyptian forces in the Sinai Peninsula. Egypt's tactic of incremental erosion of the Camp David accords has been going on for years. Israel's reluctance to confront Egypt over these serious violations has resulted in even more aggressive policies on the part of the Arab states toward Israel. it has served as a model for the PLO under Yasser Arafat to follow in its own arrogant, combative behavior toward Israel.

If Israel withdraws from the Golan at the behest of the U.S., an economically and militarily weak Syria would be transformed by the United States into an aggressive, regional powerhouse.

As a result of the Camp David accords, Egypt is today Israel's most dangerous enemy. The Egyptian military now possesses the latest U.S. equipment and benefits from U.S. training. Egypt has replaced Israel as the most important United States ally in the Middle East. At the same time there is no Arab nation that is more hostile to Israel or more virulently anti-Semitic than Egypt. Were Israel to also withdraw from the Golan Heights at the behest of the United States, an economically and militarily weak Syria would surely be similarly transformed by the United States into an aggressive, regional powerhouse.

The late Golda Meir, Israel's Prime Minister during the Yom Kippur War and one of the foremost figures in the Labor Party, succinctly stated Israel's predicament as follows:

"I never for a moment doubted that the real aim of the Arab countries has always been, and remains today, the total destruction of the State of Israel, and that even if we withdraw far beyond the 1967 borders, to some tiny enclave, they would still try to destroy us. We are duty bound to admit this truth; we are bound to clarify it to all men of goodwill who are inclined to evade it. We must face this truth in all its harshness, so that we may tap, among ourselves and among the Jewish People, all the resources necessary to overcome our enemies ..."

Irving Kett is a retired U.S. Army Colonel.

April 2000               - 7 -               Outpost